Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature on 13 June 2026, with settlement depending on the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in their Daily Extract dataset. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will contain the actual reading.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are well-documented through decades of Observatory records. Historical data shows June daily maxima typically range between 29°C and 34°C, with occasional excursions above 35°C during heat waves. The 1967 record for June stands at 36.1°C. Recent Junes have seen variability: June 2023 peaked at 33.4°C, whilst June 2024 reached 34.8°C. These precedents establish the plausible range traders should consider when evaluating which temperature bracket the market will eventually resolve to.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather patterns and any tropical cyclone activity in the weeks preceding mid-June 2026, as both significantly influence daily maxima. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes extended forecasts roughly two weeks in advance, which will provide the first concrete indication of expected conditions for that specific date. Settlement cannot occur until the Observatory finalises and publishes the Daily Extract data, typically within days of the measurement date. The current zero probability across all ranges suggests the market awaits either initial trader interest or clearer forecast visibility as the date approaches.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.