Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 17?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature on 17 June 2026, measured to one decimal place in degrees Celsius. This market resolves based on the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once data is finalised following the settlement window closure at midday UTC on that date.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are shaped by the onset of the southwest monsoon and pre-typhoon season conditions. Historical data from the Observatory shows that mid-June daily maxima typically range between 29°C and 33°C, though extremes have occasionally exceeded 34°C during particularly intense heat episodes. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clarity on which temperature bands the market offers as resolution options, or the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful price discovery across the available ranges.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts released in May 2026, which will provide early signals on whether June conditions are expected to trend warmer or cooler than the thirty-year average. Real-time tracking of sea surface temperatures in the South China Sea and upper-atmosphere pressure patterns during early June will offer more precise indicators of heat intensity. The Observatory publishes monthly climate summaries with detailed temperature statistics, which will become the definitive source once the settlement period closes and historical records are finalised.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 17? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.