Highest temperature in Madrid on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Madrid's highest temperature on 25 July 2026 will be measured at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, the city's principal weather station. The market currently prices a 3% probability on the YES outcome, suggesting traders assess a low likelihood of an extreme heat event on that specific date.

Historical data from Madrid's airport station shows July temperatures typically peak between 32°C and 36°C, with readings above 40°C occurring in roughly 5–10% of July days during recent decades. The city experienced a maximum of 40.5°C on 12 August 2021 and 40.3°C on 13 July 2022, establishing that extreme heat is possible but not routine. The 3% crowd probability reflects a baseline expectation aligned with typical July conditions rather than anomalous weather patterns. Comparable European cities at similar latitudes show similar frequency distributions for extreme heat days.

Traders monitoring this market should track European weather forecasting models as July 2026 approaches, particularly those issued by Météo-France and the UK Met Office, which provide extended-range outlooks 10–14 days before settlement. Atmospheric pressure patterns and North African heat dome positioning in late July will be the primary drivers of any extreme temperature scenario. The settlement window closes at midday on 25 July, meaning final forecasts issued on 24 July will carry the most predictive weight. Current pricing suggests the market is anchored to climatological norms rather than any emerging seasonal forecast signal.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Madrid on July 25? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.