Highest temperature in NYC on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 14 August 2026, with settlement based on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The current 0% probability assigned to any temperature range reflects the market's nascent stage, as traders have not yet positioned ahead of the date.

Historical August temperatures at LaGuardia show considerable variation. Between 2010 and 2024, the highest daily temperatures in mid-August ranged from 76°F to 91°F, with an average around 82–84°F. The most extreme heat days in New York City's August record occurred during the 1966 heat wave, when temperatures exceeded 95°F for multiple consecutive days. More recently, August 2022 saw several days above 90°F, though sustained extreme heat has become less frequent than in previous decades. These patterns suggest traders should calibrate expectations against both typical summer conditions and the possibility of anomalous heat events.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather forecasting updates released by NOAA and the National Weather Service in the weeks preceding mid-August 2026. La Niña or El Niño conditions, if present, could influence broader atmospheric patterns affecting northeastern United States temperatures. Urban heat island effects around the airport and any unusual atmospheric blocking patterns would also merit attention. Real-time weather models typically become reliable only 10–14 days before the settlement date, meaning early trading will rely heavily on climatological norms rather than specific forecasts.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in NYC on August 14? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.