Highest temperature in NYC on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market assesses the likelihood of specific high-temperature ranges for LaGuardia Airport on 14 July 2026, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome exceeding the baseline, despite a recent East Coast heatwave shattering records. This 0% YES probability for extreme heat contradicts the historical precedent set in early July 2026, when NYC, DC, and Atlantic City simultaneously broke long-standing temperature records during a holiday weekend, with some records standing for over 150 years before collapsing [3]. The current pricing suggests traders are ignoring this recent volatility, treating the mid-July date as statistically cooler than the early-July anomaly, even though Polymarket data shows the frontrunner outcome is 96–97°F at 54% probability, with 94–95°F trailing at 32% [1].

Traders should monitor daily Wunderground updates for the KLGA station as the primary settlement catalyst, given that the market resolves strictly on the highest recorded Fahrenheit temperature for that specific day [1]. While no political debates or campaign-finance disclosures directly influence weather, the lingering atmospheric pressure from the July 2026 heatwave remains the critical environmental dependency; if the heat dome persists or shifts southward, the 0% pricing on higher ranges becomes a significant mispricing relative to the 96–97°F consensus [1]. The National Weather Service maintains historical archives for LaGuardia that traders can cross-reference to validate if current conditions align with the 14-to-154-year record-breaking trends observed earlier in the month [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in NYC on July 14? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.