Highest temperature in Paris on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 15 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures.

Paris experiences considerable seasonal variation in August temperatures. Historical data from Météo-France shows that mid-August highs typically range between 24–27°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 30°C or above during heat waves. The 1% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an outcome at the upper or lower tail of the distribution—either an unusually cool day or an exceptionally hot one. August 2026 falls within a period where climate patterns remain subject to Atlantic weather systems and occasional continental heat drifts from southern Europe, both of which influence daily maxima at Le Bourget.

The resolution hinges entirely on Weather Underground's recorded observations on the settlement date. Traders should monitor long-range forecasting models as mid-August 2026 approaches, particularly European weather services' outlooks released in late July and early August. Heat wave alerts from Météo-France or Eumetsat satellite data indicating anomalous warming patterns would shift probabilities toward higher temperature ranges. Conversely, Atlantic low-pressure systems bringing cooler, wetter conditions would favour lower ranges. The specific temperature range boundaries in the market structure will determine which outcomes attract trading activity as the date nears.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Paris on August 15? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.