Highest temperature in Seoul on June 16?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 16 June 2026, Seoul's highest temperature will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and assigned to one of several temperature ranges. The settlement will draw from Weather Underground's historical records for that specific date and location, converting to Celsius as needed. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently see no meaningful conviction around any particular temperature band, or the market may lack sufficient liquidity to establish baseline pricing.

Seoul's June climate sits firmly within early summer conditions. Historical data from Incheon shows June highs typically range between 24°C and 28°C, with occasional spikes toward 30°C during heat waves. The 2023 and 2024 June records provide relevant benchmarks: temperatures in this period have rarely exceeded 32°C at the airport station, though the broader Seoul metropolitan area occasionally records higher readings. Understanding these seasonal norms is essential for calibrating expectations around which temperature band will resolve.

Traders should monitor South Korean meteorological forecasts as mid-June 2026 approaches. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes extended outlooks roughly two weeks in advance, with increasing precision as the date nears. Pacific typhoon activity in early June could influence atmospheric conditions over the Korean peninsula by mid-month, potentially driving temperatures either upward through heat dome formation or downward through cloud cover and precipitation. Real-time weather pattern shifts—particularly the position of the North Pacific high-pressure system—will be the primary catalyst determining which range ultimately settles.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Seoul on June 16? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.