Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 20?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai’s reading will hinge on the day’s top temperature at Pudong airport, with the market effectively tracking whether the afternoon peak stays in the high 20s or pushes into the low 30s Celsius. June climatology at Shanghai Pudong International Airport centres on daily highs around 77–83°F, with hot outcomes above 92°F described as rare, while June forecasts for the airport have recently clustered around the upper 70s to high 80s Fahrenheit.[1][3]

The present **0% YES** pricing suggests traders are treating the event as either effectively decided against the benchmarked outcome or too unlikely to clear the relevant temperature band. That is consistent with how similar Shanghai June temperature markets have tended to concentrate around the most common 29–31°C outcomes, with one recent Polymarket Shanghai June question showing the 31°C bracket at 100% and lower ranges priced out.[2] In practical terms, the market is leaning on normal seasonal warmth rather than any expectation of an extreme spike.

The main catalysts to watch are the latest airport forecast updates, any rain bands or thunderstorm timing, and whether the afternoon heating window is shortened by cloud cover or onshore winds. AccuWeather’s June outlook for Pudong points to daily highs of 76° to 87°F, while WeatherSpark notes June winds are fairly steady on average; that combination usually favours a moderate high unless convection or clear-sky heating changes the afternoon profile.[1][3] The resolution source is the Wunderground history page for Shanghai Pudong International Airport, so the final printed daily high there will matter more than citywide forecasts.[0]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 20? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.