Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 15 August 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and measured against historical August heat patterns for the city. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting traders have not yet priced in expectations for that specific date.

August is Tokyo's hottest month, with daily highs typically ranging between 32–35°C, though extreme heat events occasionally push readings above 37°C. Historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows that mid-August temperatures have remained relatively stable over recent decades, with the city experiencing heat waves roughly every 3–5 years. The 2010 heat wave saw Tokyo record 39.9°C on 16 August, whilst more recent summers (2019–2023) have produced peaks between 34–37°C during mid-August periods. These precedents establish a baseline: temperatures in the 33–36°C range represent typical August conditions, whilst readings above 37°C signal anomalous heat.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting updates from the Japan Meteorological Agency, typically released 1–2 months before August, which provide probabilistic guidance on whether the summer will trend warmer or cooler than the 30-year average. El Niño and La Niña patterns influence Pacific weather systems affecting Tokyo; current oceanic conditions will shape whether 2026 August develops high-pressure systems conducive to sustained heat. Real-time weather models become actionable roughly 10–14 days before the settlement date, at which point confidence in specific temperature ranges increases substantially.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 15? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.