Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo faces a humid, cloud-covered start on 17 July 2026, with thunderstorms expected in the morning and showers continuing through the afternoon at Haneda Airport, the designated observation point for this market [1]. The current forecast indicates a high of 87°F (approximately 30.6°C), which aligns with the market’s overwhelming consensus that the temperature will settle near 32°C, leaving the 0% YES probability for lower ranges effectively unchanged [2].

Historical July highs in Tokyo typically exceed 30°C, with records often reaching 35°C or higher during clear, stagnant heatwaves; the current cloudy, wet conditions represent a notable deviation from those peak summer patterns. While 32°C remains the frontrunner outcome at 100% probability, the presence of precipitation and cloud cover suggests the actual reading could dip slightly below that threshold, though not into the “25°C or below” bracket, which holds zero market support [2].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as morning thunderstorms could suppress the daytime peak further than the forecasted 30.6°C [1]. No political debates, campaign disclosures, or scheduled conventions influence this weather event; the sole catalyst is the evolving meteorological data for Haneda Airport on this specific date. The market is leaning entirely on the Wunderground daily history record, with no external non-weather catalysts in play [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 17? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.