Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil passes, has experienced sustained disruption since October 2023 following Houthi attacks on commercial shipping. Daily transit calls—measured by IMF Portwatch as arrivals of container, bulk, tanker and general cargo vessels—averaged around 40–50 ships per day through 2024 and into early 2025, well below the pre-disruption baseline of 60 or higher. For this market to resolve Yes, that 7-day moving average must reach 60 or above at any point before 31 May 2026, signalling a return to normal traffic patterns.

Historical precedent offers limited comfort to Yes traders. Previous shipping disruptions in the region—including the 2019 tanker attacks and the 2022 blockade of Ukrainian grain exports via the Black Sea—took 6–18 months to resolve, and even then required either direct military intervention or negotiated ceasefires. The Houthi campaign has proven resilient despite US and UK naval operations; attacks resumed in January 2025 after a brief lull. Shipping companies continue routing around the Cape of Good Hope, a costlier but safer alternative that reduces incentive for rapid normalisation.

The market's 2% probability reflects trader scepticism about near-term resolution. Catalysts would centre on either a decisive shift in Yemen's political situation—unlikely given Houthi entrenchment—or a dramatic escalation in US military response that forces a genuine cessation of attacks. Regional analysts monitoring statements from the Houthis' backers in Iran and recent declarations from US Central Command will offer the clearest signals. Without either development, the 14-month window to May 2026 appears insufficient for traffic to recover to pre-disruption levels.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.