Bitcoin price on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price at noon ET on 31 May 2026 remains entirely open to market forces across a 18-month horizon. The current 0% probability assigned to this market reflects the difficulty of pinpointing a specific asset price nearly two years forward, rather than any fundamental conviction about Bitcoin's direction. Historical volatility in Bitcoin pricing has ranged from sub-$20,000 to over $69,000 within single calendar years, making any precise bracket prediction a function of timing rather than directional certainty.

Traders monitoring this market should track macroeconomic policy announcements from the US Federal Reserve, particularly interest-rate decisions and quantitative-easing signals that typically drive cryptocurrency valuations. Regulatory developments—specifically any major legislative shifts in the US or EU regarding digital-asset classification—could substantially alter Bitcoin's risk premium. The 2026 midterm election cycle and associated fiscal-policy debates may influence broader risk sentiment affecting all alternative assets. Recent Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund flows, monitored through SEC filings and Bloomberg data, provide near-term momentum signals but carry limited predictive power across an 18-month window.

Geopolitical events, central-bank digital-currency announcements from major economies, and technological developments within Bitcoin's network (such as scaling solutions) represent unscheduled catalysts that could move prices materially. The market's current extreme skew toward "No" suggests traders are pricing in the inherent difficulty of resolution rather than bearish conviction, leaving substantial room for probability movement as the settlement date approaches and price ranges narrow into focus.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Bitcoin price on May 31? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.