Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

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Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains the world's most critical chokepoint for oil transit, with roughly one-fifth of global petroleum passing through its narrow waters daily. This market tests whether daily ship arrivals at the strait will reach a specified threshold on any single day between now and end-May 2026. The 10% implied probability reflects baseline scepticism that traffic will spike to the listed level, suggesting the threshold sits well above typical daily transit volumes.

Historical data from IMF Portwatch shows daily arrivals at Hormuz fluctuate between 15 and 35 vessels depending on seasonal demand, geopolitical disruption, and refinery maintenance cycles. Major spikes have occurred during periods of regional tension—notably in 2019 when US sanctions on Iranian oil exports created bottlenecks—and during post-pandemic demand surges in 2021–2022. The current 10% probability implies traders expect the specified threshold to exceed normal seasonal variation significantly, placing it in the range of acute supply-chain stress or deliberate blockade scenarios rather than routine operations.

Catalysts centre on US–Iran relations and broader Middle East stability through early 2026. The incoming Trump administration's stated intent to reimpose stringent Iran sanctions could trigger either supply hoarding (raising transit numbers) or retaliatory strait closures (reducing them). Additionally, the Houthi campaign against Red Sea shipping, which has diverted some traffic toward longer routes, remains unresolved. Traders should monitor statements from the State Department and any escalation in regional naval activity, as these would determine whether the threshold becomes achievable within the settlement window.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.