Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Felix Auger-Aliassime faces Alejandro Tabilo in the opening rounds of Roland Garros in early June 2026, with the Canadian holding a 65% implied probability of advancing. The match is scheduled for 5:00 AM ET on 1 June, positioning it as an early-round encounter on the clay courts of Paris.

Auger-Aliassime's recent form and ranking trajectory provide the foundation for the current odds. The Canadian has consistently performed well at Grand Slams, reaching quarter-finals and beyond at multiple majors in recent years. Tabilo, whilst a capable competitor on clay, has not demonstrated the same level of consistency at the sport's highest tier. Historical matchups between players of differing Grand Slam pedigree at Roland Garros typically favour the higher-ranked player, particularly in early rounds where surface mastery and match sharpness prove decisive. Auger-Aliassime's baseline game and serve strength align with the attributes that translate effectively on clay.

Traders should monitor the official Roland Garros draw confirmation and any late withdrawals or injuries in the days preceding the match. Weather conditions at Roland Garros—particularly rain delays that could extend beyond the seven-day resolution window—represent a material settlement risk. Court assignments and scheduling adjustments, typically announced by the ATP and Roland Garros organisers in late May, may affect match conditions and player preparation time. Auger-Aliassime's performance in warm-up tournaments immediately prior to the Grand Slam will signal his current competitive state heading into the encounter.

Methodology

This page tracks Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.