Colombia vs. Costa Rica

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Colombia and Costa Rica are scheduled to play a FIFA International Friendly match on Monday, 1 June 2026. The fixture forms part of the international calendar ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, hosted jointly by the United States, Mexico, and Canada. Both nations qualified for the tournament, making this a preparatory encounter for their respective squads during the final warm-up window before the competition begins in mid-June.

The 100% crowd probability reflects the near-certainty that the match will occur as scheduled. Historical precedent supports this reading: FIFA-sanctioned friendlies between qualified nations in the immediate pre-tournament period have an exceptionally high completion rate, with cancellations or postponements typically limited to force majeure events such as natural disasters or severe security incidents. The fixture carries no political controversy or scheduling conflict that would typically trigger withdrawal by either federation.

Traders should monitor official announcements from CONMEBOL and the Costa Rican Football Federation regarding squad availability and injury status in the weeks preceding 1 June. Weather conditions in the scheduled venue and any last-minute diplomatic or security developments could theoretically alter the fixture's status, though such occurrences remain statistically rare. The settlement window closes at 23:00 UTC on 1 June, providing a narrow margin for confirmation once the match concludes. No recent news sources have flagged concerns about either nation's participation or the fixture's viability.

Methodology

This page tracks Colombia vs. Costa Rica across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.