Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trump Prediction Pick polygram.ink |
51% | 49% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
51% | 49% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Trump Prediction.
Active sub-markets
| First Blood in Game 1? | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 75% YES | 25% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? | 71% YES | 30% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 31.5 in Game 1? | 61% YES | 39% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1? | 51% YES | 50% NO |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: hanjin brion vs hanwha life esports (bo3) - lck rounds 1-2 stands at 51% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL match between HANJIN BRION and Hanwha Life Esports in the LCK Rounds 1-2, initially scheduled for May 31 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "H…
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?
- Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
Trade LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK… on Trump Prediction
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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