Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-third of global seaborne oil trade, making daily transit volumes a barometer of regional stability and international commerce. This market settles on whether the 7-day moving average of ship arrivals rebounds to 60 or above by end-July 2026, using IMF Portwatch data as the sole arbiter. The baseline threshold reflects pre-disruption traffic patterns; the current 48% probability suggests traders view normalisation as roughly coin-flip odds across an 18-month window.

Historical precedent offers mixed signals. The 2019 tanker attacks and 2022 Iranian drone incidents each triggered temporary transit declines, but recovery typically occurred within weeks rather than months as regional tensions stabilised or insurance premiums adjusted. However, the 2023–2024 Houthi campaign against shipping proved more persistent, with daily transits averaging 50–55 calls for extended periods. The distinction matters: brief disruptions resolve quickly, whilst sustained geopolitical friction can depress traffic for quarters. Current probability reflects uncertainty about whether any fresh escalation—whether Iran-linked or otherwise—will emerge before mid-2026.

Traders should monitor announcements from the US, Iran, and Gulf states regarding sanctions enforcement, naval deployments, and diplomatic engagement. The International Maritime Organization and shipping indices (Baltic Exchange) publish weekly trend data that often precede IMF Portwatch releases. Any significant escalation in regional tensions, particularly involving Iranian proxies or US military posture adjustments, would likely depress the probability further. Conversely, formal de-escalation agreements or sanctions relief would accelerate recovery expectations.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.