Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's temperature on 1 June 2026 will be measured by the Hong Kong Observatory's official daily maximum reading, recorded in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though the market cannot resolve until the Observatory publishes its final data in the Daily Extract section of its climate information system.

June represents the onset of Hong Kong's summer monsoon season, with historical daily maxima typically ranging from 29°C to 32°C during early June. The Hong Kong Observatory's records show considerable year-to-year variation; 1 June temperatures have ranged from 27.5°C in cooler years to 34.0°C in warmer ones over recent decades. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clarity on the specific temperature bands available for resolution, or the market structure has not yet attracted substantive trading activity. Comparable weather prediction markets often see probability concentrated only once the resolution brackets are clearly defined and understood by participants.

The key dependency is the Hong Kong Observatory's publication schedule for daily climate data, typically released within days of the measurement date. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from the Observatory itself, which issues monthly outlooks that may indicate whether June 2026 is tracking towards above or below-average temperatures. Any significant weather patterns—such as early tropical cyclone activity or unusual pressure systems—announced in late May would provide material information, though such forecasts remain inherently uncertain more than a year in advance.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 1? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.