Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 31?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in degrees Celsius on 31 May 2026, with settlement determined by the published daily maximum figure to one decimal place. The market currently shows zero probability assigned to any outcome, suggesting traders have not yet engaged with this weather-dependent event or are awaiting historical baseline data before positioning.

Hong Kong's May temperatures typically range between 28°C and 34°C, with absolute daily maxima rarely exceeding 35°C during this month. Historical records from the Observatory show that late May tends toward the warmer end of spring conditions, though tropical systems can occasionally suppress temperatures. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's nascent stage rather than any expectation of an anomalous outcome; comparable weather markets on established platforms generally see engagement only as settlement approaches or when unusual atmospheric conditions are forecast.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone alerts issued in the weeks preceding 31 May. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, meaning the Observatory's official daily extract—published after the calendar day concludes—will determine resolution. No intermediate catalysts or announcements typically influence May temperature outcomes in Hong Kong; the market will activate primarily through standard meteorological monitoring as the date approaches and traders calibrate expectations against historical May distributions.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 31? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.