Highest temperature in NYC on May 30?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 30 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will determine which Fahrenheit range resolves this market. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full calendar day's temperature record from the National Weather Service feed via Weather Underground. This represents a straightforward meteorological measurement with no ambiguity in the underlying data source or methodology.

New York City's late May temperatures typically range between 70–85°F, with historical highs occasionally reaching into the upper 80s. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's 30-year climate normals show a mean high of 77°F for this date, whilst extreme records from the past century indicate temperatures have exceeded 90°F on rare occasions during late spring heat waves. The current 0% probability assigned to the market suggests traders are pricing in either an extremely narrow temperature band or technical issues with market construction rather than genuine weather uncertainty.

The key variable affecting May 30th conditions will be Atlantic weather patterns in the weeks preceding the date. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting models from the Climate Prediction Center, typically issued monthly, which indicate whether anomalous warmth or coolness is expected across the northeastern United States. The North Atlantic Oscillation and Gulf Stream positioning in May will influence whether subtropical air masses reach the region, though such long-range forecasts carry substantial uncertainty beyond the two-week window.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in NYC on May 30? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.