Highest temperature in Seoul on June 1?

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Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 1 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. Early June in Seoul typically sits within a warm, humid phase of the East Asian monsoon transition, with daily highs ranging between 24–28°C, though occasional heat waves can push readings several degrees higher.

Historical records from the Korea Meteorological Administration show that early June temperatures at Incheon have exceeded 30°C in roughly one year per decade over the past fifty years, most recently in 2015 when the station recorded 31.2°C on 1 June itself. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a scenario where the highest temperature falls below the lowest available range option, which would require unseasonably cool conditions—a pattern that occurs but remains statistically uncommon for this date and location.

The primary catalyst affecting this market is the broader atmospheric pattern developing across the Western Pacific in late May 2026. Tropical cyclone activity, the position of the North Pacific high-pressure system, and timing of the East Asian summer monsoon onset will determine whether warm continental air masses dominate Seoul or whether cooler maritime influences prevail. Real-time meteorological forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and regional weather models become actionable roughly two weeks before settlement, offering traders a window to reassess probabilities as the actual date approaches.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Seoul on June 1? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.