Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 1?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's weather on 1 June 2026 will be measured against historical temperature records for that date at Pudong International Airport, the city's primary meteorological observation point. Early June marks the transition into Shanghai's summer season, when daily highs typically range between 28°C and 32°C, though conditions can vary significantly based on monsoon patterns and atmospheric pressure systems active across the East China Sea.

Historical data from the past two decades shows Shanghai's June 1st highs have clustered between 26°C and 34°C, with extreme readings rare but documented. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature range being tested or expect conditions to fall outside the upper thresholds. Comparable early-June weather patterns indicate that temperatures exceeding 35°C on this date occur roughly once per decade, making such outcomes statistically uncommon but not unprecedented.

The primary catalyst affecting this market's resolution will be the monsoon onset timing and intensity across the western Pacific. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from China's National Meteorological Centre, typically released in late May, which provide 10-day outlooks for major cities. Additionally, any significant tropical cyclone activity in the region during late May could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, whilst high-pressure systems moving inland would elevate daytime maximums. Real-time weather data from Wunderground will determine final settlement once 1 June passes.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 1? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.