Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 1?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen will experience peak temperatures on 1 June 2026, with the highest reading at Bao'an International Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. June marks the onset of summer in southern China, when the subtropical coastal city typically enters its hot and humid season ahead of the monsoon rains.

Historical records from Wunderground show Shenzhen's June temperatures cluster between 28°C and 34°C, with occasional peaks above 35°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific range options available or anticipating below-normal temperatures for early June. Comparable years reveal variability: some early Junes see moderate highs around 30°C, whilst others breach 36°C when high-pressure systems stall over the region. The settlement mechanism depends entirely on Wunderground's historical data archive, which records hourly observations from the airport station—a reliable source given its role as China's official meteorological reporting point for the region.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from China's National Meteorological Centre in the weeks preceding 1 June, as these typically indicate whether the region faces above or below-average temperatures. El Niño or La Niña conditions influence Pacific weather patterns affecting southern China's early summer. The specific temperature range brackets offered in this market will determine which outcomes carry genuine probability; currently low crowd engagement may reflect limited clarity on those thresholds rather than consensus on the actual weather outcome.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 1? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.