Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 31?

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Market context

Shenzhen will experience peak temperatures on 31 May 2026, with the highest reading recorded at Bao'an International Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. The market currently shows zero probability assigned to any temperature range, suggesting either incomplete trader participation or uncertainty about which bracket will ultimately contain the day's maximum.

May marks the transition into Shenzhen's pre-monsoon season, when daily highs typically range between 28°C and 32°C. Historical data from the past decade shows that end-of-May temperatures at Bao'an rarely exceed 33°C, with most years clustering around 30–31°C. The 2025 May 31 reading will provide the most recent comparable benchmark; traders should review Wunderground's historical records for the airport station across multiple years to calibrate expectations against seasonal norms and any anomalous heat events.

The primary variable affecting settlement will be atmospheric conditions in the days immediately preceding 31 May. Tropical weather systems, including early-season typhoons or high-pressure systems stalling over southern China, can drive temperatures substantially higher than seasonal averages. Traders should monitor meteorological forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international weather services beginning in mid-May, as these will offer the most reliable indication of whether conditions will favour typical seasonal temperatures or anomalous heat. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 31 May, requiring resolution based on Wunderground's recorded data for that calendar day.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 31? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.