Highest temperature in Paris on May 31?

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Market context

This market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 31 May 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and settled against historical data from Weather Underground.

Late May temperatures at Le Bourget typically range between 18°C and 24°C, with occasional peaks reaching 26–28°C during warm spells. The 31-year climate normal for maximum temperature on this date sits around 21°C. Historical records show that temperatures exceeding 30°C on 31 May are rare but not unprecedented; the station has recorded highs in the upper twenties during anomalously warm springs. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an expectation of moderate conditions or uncertainty about which specific temperature band the market offers as resolution options.

The primary driver of temperature on any given day in late May is the position of Atlantic weather systems and high-pressure ridges over continental Europe. Forecasting accuracy beyond ten days remains limited, making early-May meteorological patterns—particularly whether a warm anticyclone is established over western Europe—the key variable to monitor. Traders should track European weather models released in late May 2026 and note any persistent forecasts showing heat advection from the south or stalled high-pressure systems over France, both of which would push daily maxima toward the upper end of the seasonal range.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Paris on May 31? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

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How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.