Highest temperature in Seoul on May 31?

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Market context

Seoul's weather on 31 May 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station, with settlement determined by Wunderground historical data. Late May in Seoul typically falls within the transition from spring to early summer, with daily highs ranging between 24–28°C depending on atmospheric conditions and any early monsoon influence.

Historical records from the Korea Meteorological Administration show that Seoul's May temperatures have remained relatively stable across decades, with extreme highs above 30°C occurring in roughly one in five years during this period. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a scenario where the highest temperature falls below the lowest available range option, though this conflicts with typical late-May conditions in the region. Comparable May 31st observations from prior years provide the most direct reference point; traders should examine Wunderground's historical archive for Seoul to establish baseline expectations for this specific date.

The primary catalyst affecting this market's resolution is the actual weather system present over the Korean peninsula on 31 May 2026. Traders should monitor seasonal weather forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international weather models beginning in late May, as any unusual high-pressure system or early heat wave could shift temperatures materially. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 31 May, giving traders access to real-time temperature data as the day progresses before final resolution against Wunderground's recorded high.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Seoul on May 31? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.