Highest temperature in Seoul on May 28?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 28 May 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, with the market resolving to whichever temperature band contains the recorded high for that day. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's temperature range across Seoul's metropolitan region before the market locks.

Historical May temperatures in Seoul show considerable variability. Over the past two decades, late May highs have ranged from approximately 24°C to 32°C, with an average around 27–28°C. The transition into summer typically brings warmer conditions, though spring weather systems can still produce cooler days. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as an outlier scenario, though May represents a standard warm-season month for the region with no particular meteorological anomaly expected.

Traders should monitor long-range weather models as May 2026 approaches, particularly from sources like the Korea Meteorological Administration, which publishes monthly outlooks. Atmospheric patterns in late spring depend on the position of the North Pacific high-pressure system and any lingering frontal activity from the mid-latitudes. The settlement source, Wunderground's historical data for Incheon, is reliably updated daily and provides the definitive record. No scheduled weather events or anomalies are currently flagged for that specific date, making this a straightforward seasonal temperature prediction dependent on standard meteorological conditions.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Seoul on May 28? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.