Highest temperature in Seoul on May 30?

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Market context

Seoul's weather on 30 May 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, with the market resolving to whichever temperature band contains the day's high. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, meaning the final reading will capture the morning and early afternoon conditions but exclude any late-day warming.

Historical data from Incheon shows late May typically sits in the warm-to-hot range. Over the past decade, 30 May highs have ranged from approximately 24°C to 30°C, with an average around 27°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands available or expect conditions to fall outside whatever upper threshold the market has defined. Comparable May weather patterns indicate that temperatures in the high 20s Celsius are the modal outcome for this date and location, making extreme heat or unusual cold equally unlikely.

The primary catalyst affecting this market is the seasonal weather pattern established by late spring conditions in South Korea. Traders should monitor the Asian monsoon onset timing, which typically begins affecting the Korean peninsula in early June but can occasionally arrive earlier. Any significant atmospheric pressure systems moving across East Asia in the weeks preceding 30 May could shift conditions notably. Real-time forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration, typically released five to ten days before the target date, will provide the most actionable information for refining probability assessments closer to settlement.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul on May 30? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

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On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

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What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.